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    Title

    Hot Spots Identification For Urbanization In Future Using GIS and Remote Sensing Techniques.

    A case study of Lahore, Pakistan.

    Introduction:

    Urbanization is now a common feature of all third world countries. Over the past few decades, cities are turning into mega cities and expanding to its surroundings because of the unprecedented population growth that characterized much of the 20th century has evolved into unparallel urban growth.

    Formerly planned residential areas are no longer livable. They are experiencing lot of problems because of their location of urban area. Some of the problems they are facing are following:

    Ø  Growth of highly dense and unplanned residential areas.

    Ø  Water pollution because of dumping sites are nearby or beneath.

    Ø  Environmental pollution.

    Ø  Non-availability of services and amenities.

    Ø  Not a well planned sewerage system, solid waste, and etc.

    Lack of adequate tools and information for city and urban planning is also making planners in most developing countries to loose track and equally loose the battle for creating decent and livable cities.1

    GIS and Remote Sensing provide us such techniques which can be use for urban development and urban planning with negligible impact on natural environment and recourses.

    Remote sensing satellite data is suitable for urban land use mapping to get detail and up to – date information for environmental management. Whereas GIS helps in developing database system for urban information, which supports decision making process1 through which suitable areas for urban development can be easily detected on a large scale in small period of time.

    Literature Review:-

    A wide variety of digital urbanization techniques have been developed over the last two decades.

    Fasona and Omojola (2004) stated that the major reason for urbanization is because of population growth so there is a need of well planned urbanized areas which can meet all the necessities for a slandered life. They assessed the extent of encroachments into the original acquisitions of study area using satellite imagery and also investigates the extent of conversion of open spaces in the developed area of Festac town to other land uses using GIS techniques.1

    In 2010th journal geographic information system, Rehman found stated in his article Urbanization and quality of urban environment using RS and GIS techniques in New Dehli, in which he introduced the problems which may generate due to accelerated urbanization with explosive increase of population. He used MSS satellite images, Guide map and demography and environmental data. He selected eight parameters, which affect the urban environmental quality, namely built-up area, open spaces, household density, occupancy ratio, population density, accessibility to roads, noise and smell affected area. The study shows that the quality of environment has been degraded when we compare 1982 and 2003 data. Most of the East district was in a better state of environment in 1982, but in 2003 things have been changed and now 50% area is in very good, fair and desirable condition. The public participation and involvement should be encouraged planning and decisions making for the improvement in better urban environmental quality.

    Chandio and Matori (2011) in their article they follow multi-criteria decision analysis (MSDA) approach to design a conceptual framework of understanding land evaluation, considering accessibility, to develop GIS-based land suitability analysis model and to formulate effective strategies for locating optimal sites to the hillside development against environmental threats and economic pull factor in Malaysia. In this study, the Penang Island is selected for land suitability analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS). MCDA is the basic base for land suitability analysis in the rational land-use planning using GIS. In order to determine suitable site, the important factors/criterions are incorporated i.e. accessibility and topography, land cover, and economic. In this paper, pair-wise comparison using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method in Expert Choice software were analyzed to get priority weights gathered by the expert opinions. As the result, consistency ratio (CR) was obtained, where Scenario 1 Accessibility is 0.04 and Scenario 2 Environment is 0.07. The outcomes of this study will be suitability model for hillside developments in Malaysia as well as other developing countries.

    Mokarram and Aminzadeh used Cell-based Multicriteria Evaluation (MCE) methods to analyze the land suitability evaluation. Land evaluation is carried out to estimate the suitability of land for a specific use such as arable farming or irrigated agriculture. Land suitability evaluation is a prerequisite for land-use planning and development. It provides information on the constraints and opportunities for the use of the land and therefore guides decisions on optimal utilization of land resources. The aim in integrating Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is to provide more flexible and more accurate decisions to the decision makers in order to evaluate the effective factors. Furthermore, by changing the parameters in this type of method, a wide range of decision strategies or scenarios can be generated in some procedures. They also take the advantage of incorporation of fuzzy (linguistic) quantifiers into GIS-based land suitability analysis by ordered weighted averaging (OWA) which is multi criteria valuation procedure (or combination operator). The goal of this research is to take the advantage of incorporation of fuzzy (linguistic) quantifiers into GIS-based land suitability analysis by ordered weighted averaging (OWA). OWA is a multi criteria valuation procedure (or combination operator). The nature of the OWA procedure depends on some parameters, which can be specified by means of fuzzy (linguistic) quantifiers.

    Dong, Zhuang, Xu, and Ying adopted GIS techniques for urgently evaluating the landuse suitability for urban growth on a regional scale. In order to meet this requirement an integrated evaluation model was developed supported by AHP method and the integrated urban development suitability index (UDSI) was calculated using this model for the area for jingji (namely Beijing).

    Lwasa in his paper A-Geoinformation approach for Urban Landuse Planning in kampla, took an approach of GIS based model for urban land use planning by highlighting a procedure to identify factors for assessment, classify land based on the criteria, generate a suitability model and evaluate existing, potential and proposed areas for housing using the suitability model. In his paper he also highlights the usefulness of land allocation beyond suitability analysis in which GIS based allocation models have a potential in urban land use planning. Sensitivity of the GIS based models can also be briefly explained before outlining some limitations. He concludes with a note that GIS based models offer the much needed powerful tools for enhancement of urban land use planning.

    In the journal of modern applied science of 2001, Chandio uses Analytical Hierarchy Process (APH) as a multi-criteria evaluation approach by integrating it with the Geographic information system (GIS) in order to find the suitable locations for parks and public facilities development in future. Decision support system software called Expert choice 11.5 was used to calculate the weights based on three alternative scenarios. Computed composite weights were inserted into the spatial analysis function of GIS and produced three scenarios of suitability maps, i.e.: (a) land availability, (b) land value and (c) population density.

    Objectives:

    The main objectives of this research are following:

          1.     To estimate the current land use of Lahore city.

          2.     How GIS and Remote Sensing tools can be used for identification of Hot Spots for urbanization?

          3.     To assess the extent of encroachment of study area

          4.     Generating a map of the areas which can be urbanized in future without affecting from any problem which are influenced areas from problems causing factors.

          5.     To recognize the factors leading to such conditions and to evaluate the possibilities of improvement of urban environment by public participation.

    Plan of the work and methodology:

    My study area is Lahore district of Punjab is the capital of the Pakistani province of Punjab and the second largest city in the country Pakistan, located at 31°15′—31°45′ N and 74°01′—74°39′ E, Lahore is bounded on the north and west by the Sheikhupura District, on the east by Wagah, and on the south by Kasur District. The Ravi River flows on the northern side of Lahore. Lahore city covers a total land area of 404 km² and is still growing12.

    Required Data:

    ü  Landcover and Landuse data

    ü  Administrative map

    ü  DEM (Digital Elevation Model)

    Sources for Data gathering:

    ü  Satellite image (Landsat 4-5)

    ü  Topographic sheet

    ü  ASTER for DEM

    Required technologies are:

    ü  ERDAS Imagine

    ü  ArcGIS

    ERDAS Imagine will be used for classifying the satellite image to explore the current landcover of my study area using different Remote Sensing techniques.

    Topographic sheet will help me out to find the landuse (roads, railways, settlements, canals, rivers, electric poles, post offices etc).

    DEM will provide the slope, aspect, and drainage pattern of any area which freely available online from the USGS.

    As there are lot off methods for evaluating land suitability analysis for urban development and urbanization. I will use analytical hierarchy process (APH) method to integrate it with Geographic Information System (GIS) as it is a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach which is more appropriate for future landuse planning and fulfill my requirements. APH is method is expert choice software will analyze to get priority weights gather for expert opinions.

    The main technology is ArcGIS which will be used for generating the all required maps as well as Administrative map and current land use map will be used to generate the base data and then I will follow the approach of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to design the conceptual framework of understanding land evaluation, considering accessibility, to develop GIS-based land suitability analysis model and to formulate effective strategies for locating optimal sites to the development against environmental threats and absence of basic need for easy life. MCDA is the basic base for land suitability analysis in the rational land-use planning using GIS. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method in Expert Choice software will analyze to get priority weights gathered by the expert opinions. The outcomes will be suitability model for urban development in future in Lahore as well as in other cities and countries.

    Significance:

    Urban development may cause the environmental, economic and social impacts of an area, city or country. By identifying the suitable areas for urban development we can:

           ·       Find the areas which don’t disturb the natural environment.

           ·       Provide all type of facilities which are basic needs of any area.

           ·       Model a planned low density populated areas.

           ·       Have synoptic view that is often required for efficient management of natural resources.

    All this information is useful directly for resource management agencies, urban planners, and engineers etc that plan, manage and assess natural resources. Indirectly for the general population that is affected by changes that occur in natural land cover.

    Bibliography:

    1.     M.J.Fasona and A.S.Omojola (2004) GIS & RS for urban planning, Proc. 12th Int. Conf. on Geoinformatics, University of Gävle, Sweden, 7-9 June 2004

    2.     Atiqur Rahman, Yogesh Kumar, Shahab Fazal, Sunil Bhaskara Urbanization and quality of urban environment using GIS and RS, Scientific Research, Journal of Geographic Information System.Vol. 3, No. 62-84.

    3.     Imtiaz Ahmed Chandio, Abd Nasir Bin Matori (2011) Land suitability analysis using GIS and RS, International Conference on Environmental and Computer Science. Vol. 19.

    4.     M. Mokarram, F. Aminzadeh GIS based multi criteria land suitability evaluation using ordered weight averaging with fuzz qualifiers, International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, Vol. 38, Part II.

    5.     Jiang Dong, Dafang Zhuang, Xinliang Xu and Lei Ying (2008), Integrated evaluation of urban development suitability base on RS and GIS techniques

    www.mdpi.org/sensors-08-05975.pdf

    6.     Shuaib LWASA (2005), A geo information approach for urban land use planning.

    www.ieee.ts37_03_lwasa.pdf

    7.     Imtiaz Ahmed Chandio (2011), GIS- based Land Suitability Analysis Using AHP for Public Parks, Modern Applied Science, Vol. 5, No. 4.

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