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BUSA3015 BUSINESS FORECASTING ASSIGNMENT

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BUSA3015 BUSINESS FORECASTING ASSIGNMENT

BUSA3015 BUSINESS FORECASTING ASSIGNMENT HELP

Case Study Report 1

Due: 11:59 pm, Tuesday 5th May

Format

The main tables, charts and results should be presented throughout the report to highlight your

responses to the questions. All other computer output should be put into labelled and referenced

appendices.

This Case Study Report assessment will require a written submission based around a comprehensive business forecasting project. You will need to determine and find suitable empirical data which will be then be used as the basis of relevant business forecasts and associated recommendations.

Reports are required to be submitted through Turn-it-in by the relevant date and time indicated above. Convert your DOC file into a PDF prior to submission. You will also have to upload your XLS file through iLearn. Only the PDF file will be marked, the XLS file will not be marked. No extensions will be granted.

There will be a deduction of 10% of the total available marks made from the total awarded mark for each 24-hour period, or part thereof, that the submission is late (for example, 25 hours late in submission – 20% penalty). This penalty does not apply for cases in which an application for Special Consideration is made and approved.

The task involves choosing appropriate data for the task. The choice of appropriate data needs to be justified and relevant data selection is part of the assessment process.

Forecasts for the relevant target variable will be related to forecasts for variables available through the ABS website. Often in forecasting and other research, the available data will not perfectly match the situation. The forecaster/researcher needs to make a judgment on suitable data that approximate the exact variable (s) needed.

The only thing you should do is to type your answers directly on the file, including cutting and pasting relevant output from Excel or Minitab.

Answers – pre-formatted DOC File on iLearn

Answers to this assignment must be typed on the pre-formatted DOC file that has been uploaded on iLearn.

Please do not alter the formatting of this file:

         Do not change the font size.

         Do not change the line spacing.

         Do not change the paragraph settings.

         Do not change the page margins.

         Do not change the headers or footers.

         Do not edit or delete the questions.

         Do not edit any other component of the file apart from typing your answers and cutting and                 

           pasting relevant output.

 

As per the pre-formatted DOC file on iLearn, your answers will be in Georgia font, size 11. The

 

answers are to be in black font, while

 

the questions have been set in red font.

As per the pre-formatted DOC file on iLearn for the answers the answers must be contained within the stipulated pages. In other words:

 

Page 1 – Questions 1 & 2

 

Page 2 – Questions 3 & 4

 

Pages 3 & 4 – Question 5 & 6 (either question may start or begin on either page)

 

Page 5 – Questions 7 & 8

 

 Pages 6 & 7 – Question 9 & 10 (either question may start or begin on either page)

 

 Not adhering to the above will results in a penalisation of marks.

   

If you want relevant output to be marked, you can cut-and-paste relevant output into these pages.

 

All other output should be included in the appendices – for completeness. The appendices can be       

 

of any length.

   

However, appendices will not be marked.

 A page has been dedicated for a reference list in the pre-formatted DOC file.

2020 BUSA3015 – BUSINESS FORECASTING:-

Case Study Report 1

Due: 11:59 pm, Tuesday 5th May

Each student has been assigned an Australian State according to the ‘Your Designated Aus State for

the Reports’ list in the Assignment section on iLearn.

You are working for an American home appliance retailer, HomeAppCo. HomeAppCo is considering launching stores across Australia. In this regard, your job is to forecast the expenditure on household appliances in the Australian state that has been designated to you. Your forecasts will assist in the business plans that HomeAppCo has in terms of expanding into Australia – and in particular, whether the launch should be Australia-wide or specific to certain states. While you are to focus on the Australian state that has been designated to you, your classmates have been designated the same task as you, but each of them is focusing on another Australian state.

This is an individual assignment!

Questions

1. Identify a relevant time series for household final consumption expenditure on household appliances at current prices for the Australian state that you have been designated in iLearn. The series should begin in September 1983, and end in December 2019. Briefly explain how you obtained the relevant time series and provide a reference here.Data should be available through the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Provide a line chart of the relevant time series. Identify any structural breaks if any.

2. Comment in general on the characteristics of the time series line chart. What systematic components are evident in the time series? By referring to the time series plot, explain your answer. (Please note Question 4 before you answer this question).

3. Using a corellogram, confirm the presence of the systematic components of the time series. . Explain your answer.

4. Outline the economic and environmental factors or circumstances which are likely to have influenced the characteristics or components of the time series. Will these factors or circumstances apply to the relevant forecasting period? Explain your answer.

5. Use (multiplicative) Winters’ Exponential Smoothing in Excel to smooth (remove randomness) the chosen time series for just the last 4 years of data to help further identify the relevant systematic components. Explain what you have done.

6. From the results of the above smoothing, provide a 4-year time series line chart comparing the original time series with the generated smoothed values. Comment on your smoothing. Include the forecasts from question #10 as part of your line chart above – which would create a 5-year timeseries line chart.

7. Perform the appropriate tests for whether your model has captured all the systematic components and/or whether the errors are random. Explain your answer.

8. Using mathematical notation, write out all the equations that represent the systematic components of your Winters’ Exponential Smoothing model.

9. Do any of your results (for any of the above questions) suggest any re-evaluation or modification of the Winters Model, if at all? Explain your answer. In light of recent events, critically evaluate your choice of model, and critically evaluate the factors you would need to consider when forecasting for the second or third year (of quarterly forecasts) beyond the sample period.

10. Use Excel to provide relevant monthly forecasts for home appliance expenditure for your designated Australian state for each quarter beyond the sample data period (one year of quarterly out-of-sample forecasts). Manually replicate these forecasts by hand (write out your working using pen and paper and attach a photo of this here).

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